Last month, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a fall, fearing the arrival of a bear market. The idea that the most historic maximum is USD 124,000 is a record for this cycle and will launch the bear market. However, Spanish financial analyst Carmelo Aleman is different from his vision. To him, he is clear. He hasn’t reached the roof yet.
German thinks that At least 25 on-chain metrics for Bitcoin suggest that there is still a way to go to currency Before reaching the new maximum. He explained to encryption only that one of the main measurements was the capitalized measurement that was performed. This reflects the amount you keep in Bitcoin.
According to German, BTC’s “money ticket records are being beaten continuously.” This continues, “in addition to small capitals, there is still interest in investors’ side with large capital and intermediate capitals.”
Another metric highlighted by specialists is the UTXO age band metric that measures all active supplies last moved within a given age band and summarises long-term and short-term holder behavior along with price stocks.
German explains that this graph shows it Investors don’t sell it, but they buy it. And he said when BTC supported US$107,000 last week, investors “buyed the fall.”
“They trust Bitcoin, which is in a lot because they buy little by little, so the stripes of those ages are increasing, because they’re buying. That’s because they’re buying.
The optimism expressed by investors is verified with the bullish expectations given to Bitcoin by large financial companies. For example, the standard chartered project of the UK banking giant, which has BTC reaching US$250,000 this year, is consistent with the US bank HC Wainwright & Co, created in 1868, and believes Bitcoin will quote US$225,000 in 2025.
Whales and miners play their roles
Analysts also mention a metric that measures the behavior of large whales in BTC, a wallet with over 10,000 accumulated coins. This measurement, he says, It suggests that these investors have not begun selling their holdings, which is why they have not reached the ceiling of the cycle.
“These blue whales are like dominoes that start selling and start falling. This hasn’t happened. Conversely, Bitcoin ETFs continue to buy and buy companies like Strategy.
However, whales’ actions are subject to debate. This is because On-Chain Data reflects that there are whales that sold holdings. For example, in July, the time of Nakamoto Sato’s Investors sold 80,000 BTC on Galaxy Digital. Then, at the end of August, another whale sent 750 Bitcoins to Binance.
Among them, the whales purchased 16,000 BTC in the fall for 114,000 US$. For financial analyst Cauê Oliveira, this accumulation reflects the absorption patterns of price declines, opening up space for creating local floors at that level.
Meanwhile, metrics measuring miner behavior also suggest that BTC continues to rise. Aleman points out that so far, Bitcoin Miners have accumulated 1,805,000 BTC and have only sold around 6,000 coins since January.
«This shows miners trust prices to rise. They are no longer just great owners, but they are also miners who refer to the price of rebounds. Because when everything starts to fall, you see how miners start selling,” he said.
Basic data also affects
In addition to technical and on-chain data showing an increase in BTC over the coming months, other more fundamental factors have also been added, with the addition of conjunctions in German language. For example, he cited the predictions as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates on September 17th as its organization’s president, Jerome Powell, appeared.
In fact, according to Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, it is estimated that interest rates will be cut at least twice by the end of the year.
It is feasible that if that happens, there will be a significant increase in financial liquidity (M2). This is usually beneficial to the price of digital currencies and, as a result, it is beneficial to the cryptocurrency sector.
«M2 is something that is available in a very short term. That means everything that shows metallic money, credit cards, money available on your current account, short-term credit, and liquidity. And if the world M2 rises, it will be transferred to Bitcoin for a few months immediately. Because some of the money is always because people usually invest in BTC and usually rise in prices.
Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin on-chain analyst.
This German vision is consistent with the vision of those seeking an Alpha Community Analyst Oriental Trader. He said the growing liquidity is one factor that will allow for optimism in the price of Bitcoin over the coming months.
Certainly, as both analysts explain, BTC prices tend to rise once global financial liquidity is completeas seen in the Bitcoin Conr Flow Graph below:
However, on the last day of August, global liquidity and Bitcoin prices experienced a temporary separation. This is because much of the liquidity was absorbed into the General Treasury account known as the “current story” of the US Treasury.
What is the price of Bitcoin?
Now, if there are at least 25 metrics that suggest that Bitcoin prices will rise, what involves basic factors, why does BTC prices fall?
For Carmelo in Germany, “there are terrible market manipulation” that generally causes corrections such as last week When BTC fell 12% compared to its last record.
The specialist says that the market creator or market maker is in charge of such operations. By definition, these actors are committed to buying and selling financial assets to provide liquidity to the market.
«Market makers head to the Bitcoin market. This is positive because it creates currents that can become bullish or bassist for assets».
Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin on-chain analyst.
In that order of ideas, Germany repeats that yes, there are metrics and foundations that raise the price of naturalness. And although I know this will be completed “if the market maker is permitted”, In the story, it is “absolutely radical” that Bitcoin has to raise its price in the coming months. In his opinion, “The bullish cycle is not over and I’m not kidding.”
