After Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $100,000 this week, Galaxy Digital lowered its target price for the end of 2025 from $185,000 to $120,000.
According to the company’s researchers, BTC is currently entering a “maturity phase” defined by reduced volatility and dominant institutional capital flows.
Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said Bitcoin’s long-term structure “remains strong,” but that 2025 will be shaped by “massive whale sales, absorption by ETFs, and declining retail investor interest.”
“If Bitcoin can sustain the $100,000 level, the nearly three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, but the pace of gains could slow.”
Galaxy’s estimate revision comes after one of the sharpest revisions this year. Bitcoin’s price has fallen from around $107,000 yesterday to below $99,000, with more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions liquidated. Analysts say the market is “fragile” due to ETF outflows, reduced liquidity and selling by long-term investors.
Galaxy noted that approximately 470,000 Bitcoins (worth approximately $50 billion) have moved from long-term wallets to institutional investors, arguing that this not only represents an “institutionalization” of Bitcoin supply, but also creates resistance at key levels.
The report also noted that capital inflows into artificial intelligence investments and gold are limiting Bitcoin’s performance. Investment in AI infrastructure and rising demand for data centers are attracting investors, while geopolitical risks are reviving demand for gold as a safe haven.
“In a liquidity-rich environment, investor interest is limited. 2025 has been a big year for investing in AI stocks and ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks, not Bitcoin,” Thorne said.
*This is not investment advice.
