In an analysis on March 27, 2025, Truflation highlights the recurring phenomenon in an analysis entitled “Where is Bitcoin heading next? Signals hidden in real-time data.” The inflation index experiences a prominent downtrend that has later paused or reversed.
Where is Bitcoin heading next?
The Truflation study points to the background shaped by the aftermath of Covid-19. However, a simple period of overlapping money has been achieved by 2021 and 2023, with Bitcoin running at an all-time high. However, sustained inflation took hold and the US Federal Reserve reversed the course. Raising interest rates and quantitative tightening will be key tools to combat price pressure, with the Federal Reserve explicitly aiming to reduce consumer price inflation to 2%.
According to the Truflation Report, real-time inflation measurements reached 2% in June 2023. The official Consumer Price Index (CPI) issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reflected that pattern around a month and a half later, falling to a 3% bottom in July 2023. Instead, it oscillates between the higher boundaries and lower bounds, exhibiting a pattern of cyclic development, which stabilizes or reverses the course. Truflation believes that each of these periodic “inflection points” correlates closely with the subsequent rise in Bitcoin prices.
The report referenced four different periods from September 2023 to September 2024, with the Truflation index facing downwards and then flat or rebound. In each of these cases, Bitcoin prices quickly rose. Truflation suggests that a fifth such event may be unfolding. The inflation index fell sharply in early 2025, reaching around 1.30%, at levels not seen in months, before rebounding to 1.80%. This situation is reminiscent of previous luminous troughs that have booked a new wave of Bitcoin purchases based on Truflation data.
“When Truflation’s escape trend pauses or reverses, Bitcoin tends to recover quickly. This pattern has already been repeated several times.
The underlying reasons are explained for fundamental reasons, focusing on the future-looking nature of Bitcoin and its sensitivity to changing liquidity conditions. Typically, strong disinfection will encourage speculation that the Federal Reserve can raise fees and could quickly turn into dogs. A sudden and relentless escape can cause a recession horror, but the slowdown or suspension of that escape trend often reassures the market that the economy is not in a slump.
This “soft landing” scenario prevents risk-on sentiment. Traders and investors who believe inflation is suppressed enough to slow down additional tightening, or lead their optimism to assets like Bitcoin.
The report acknowledges that a single data, including Truflation itself, is complex and does not hold an absolute shaking over assets widely traded as Bitcoin. However, in addition to crypto, it also emphasizes the impact on stocks, commodities and forex trading, revering real-time inflation expectations across global markets. By predicting changes in these expectations, some investors may go ahead of the curve when official CPI reports and central bank declarations confirm or contradict the trends that will ultimately evolve.
“Thorflation in a vacuum has no effect on Bitcoin. There has been no single data source before. However, inflation expectations are rippling across a wide range of markets, from stocks to commodities, especially bond yields and forex markets,” the analysis concludes.
At the time of pressing, BTC traded for $84,461.
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