The plummeting price of Bitcoin from $126,000 to $60,000 has understandably panicked a large portion of the market, and with sentiment still in the red, further price declines are still likely. For now, the focus has shifted to predicting when Bitcoin will bottom. Over the years, a variety of factors have determined when prices hit rock bottom. However, considering the current situation, crypto analyst BarneyXBT has outlined three different reasons for and against the possibility of Bitcoin’s bottom falling.
Why Bitcoin Price May Still be in a Bear Market
In a post shared on X, BarneyXBT points out three things to consider that could indicate Bitcoin is still in a bear market. The first reason why Bitcoin is considered to be in a bear market is that large investors are still selling Bitcoin. Satoshi-era whales have been seen for sale recently, with Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin selling ETH.
Next on the list of reasons points to the current macro environment. With the tariff battle still largely unresolved, interest rates on hold and consumer confidence low, analysts called the macro situation “chaotic.”
The last reason cited is the fact that retail seems to have completely disappeared from the market. This is evidenced by the lack of liquidity currently flowing into the market. In addition to this, we are not seeing the emergence of new narratives, especially as we have seen with artificial intelligence (AI) in 2024.
Arguments in favor of a bull market
However, the analyst also cited reasons that suggest Bitcoin may still be in a bull market. One is the fact that sentiment has fallen to levels not seen since the FTX exchange crash. This is important here because sentiment reached its lowest point at this point and the market then started to recover.
Another reason is that financial institutions do not want their investments to go to waste. The likes of BlackRock and Fidelity have poured billions into their ETF products, and Bernie XBT explained that it’s unlikely they would have spent this much on infrastructure just to get out.
Finally, there is the legendary Bitcoin halving cycle. Historical performance shows that bull markets have always revolved around the Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years. Therefore, BTC price may recover as another halving occurs in 2028.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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