Cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket reveals user expectations ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decisions announced tomorrow. Data on the platform shows that the vast majority of the market believes the Fed will not change its policy rate.
The forecast market opened for Polymarket’s interest rate determinations created a total trading volume of over $66 million. 98% of users believe the Fed will keep current interest rates constant. Over $22.2 million has been invested in this option.
See other scenarios:
- The expectation for a 25 basis point reduction is 2%, with transaction volumes of $18 million.
- The chance of a discount of 50 basis points or more is below 1%.
- The probability of an increase of 25 basis points is very low, at 1%.
Polymate users are also predicting interest rate decisions, as well as future prices for Bitcoin. Over $8 million has been traded in a market titled “What price will Bitcoin reach in June?”
- The most supported level is $100,000, with 56% of users predicting this price.
- It follows 25% with $95,000, 17% with $115,000, and 12% with $90,000.
- Price expectations of more than $120,000 will not exceed 8% in total.
Users also share predictions about what price Bitcoin will reach in 2025. Here, the highest probability stands out at 71% at $120,000.
- 54% estimate of $130,000,
- $150,000 is supported at 33%.
- Other notable levels include $70,000 (28%), $200,000 (14%) and $50,000 (12%).
*This is not investment advice.
