Although the Senate voted 60-40 to end the U.S. government shutdown, it has not yet officially ended. Meanwhile, the prediction market is reconsolidating faster than the Las Vegas dealers, with Polymarket’s latest odds currently showing the government returning the lights sometime between November 12th and 15th.
Traders are betting the chaos on Capitol Hill will end soon
On Sunday, November 9, 2025, the U.S. Senate voted 60-40 to end the government shutdown, marking a major step toward getting Uncle Sam back in business. The agreement provides the government with funding through January 30, 2026, reverses federal job cuts planned during the standoff, and secures a mid-December vote on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Still, the lights remain dim in Washington for now as lawmakers need several more days to pass the plan through the House and reach the president’s desk until the government formally regains power. According to Polymarket bettors, the probability that the government shutdown will be completed between November 12th and 15th is very high, with traders confidently giving it an 85% chance.
Source: Polymarket Bets on November 10, 2025, 8:30am ET.
Polymarket bet, its title is “When will the government shutdown end?‘ has raised a massive $22.03 million in turnover to date, but the once-hopeful November 8-11 period now faces a bleak 8% outlook, as initial optimism faded faster than the campaign’s pros.make a mistake Meanwhile, avid bettors on Nov. 16 and above are folding their tents at 7%, suggesting most traders expect Capitol Hill to eventually bounce back before time runs out over the weekend.
Karshi traders are calling it what they think the prolonged government shutdown is finally in sight. Almost everyone (a whopping 99%) agrees that it will explode beyond the 40th day, with 98% predicting it will happen on the 41st day, which is today. Confidence drops to 91% after 42 daysCheck before you take the plunge. Only 59% think it will be above 43 degrees and only 38% are preparing for 44 degrees.
Source: Kalsi Government Shutdown bet on November 10, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET.
By day 45, confidence in Washington’s dysfunction levels off to 25%, after which the market basically gives up — odds drop to 13% and 10% for days 46 and above and 47 and above, respectively. in short? Traders are betting that the shutdown will end in about 43 to 44 days. This is long enough to test everyone’s sanity, and long enough to leave a record.
All signs point to the shutdown limping toward an end within days rather than weeks. If bettors are right, the chaos in Washington will soon be coming to an end, just in time for everyone to start talking about the next crisis.
Frequently asked questions ❓
- When did the U.S. Senate vote to end the government shutdown? The Senate approved the agreement on November 9, 2025, by a vote of 60-40.
- How long did the government shutdown last? According to market forecasts, the shutdown could end in about 43 to 44 days.
- What does the new contract include? Provides funding to the government through January 30, 2026, to restore federal jobs that were cut during the government shutdown.
- What do prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi show? Traders overwhelmingly expect the shutdown to end this week.
