Demand for Bitcoin (BTC) by retailaccording to the 30-day change, retail investors who moved less than $10,000 returned to negative levels. This is shown by the CryptoQuant Onchain Explorer data published yesterday, February 19, 2026.
This behavior has been observed despite the fact that the indicator has recovered positive levels twice, as Bitcoin remained around USD 68,000 three weeks ago. After falling to $60,000, the currency has remained flat within this range. 52% below all-time high In October, it hit $126,000.
This indicator turns negative, which means Retailers are buying less Bitcoin or increasing sales. However, it has not yet reached the low levels seen during the drop to $60,000.
With such a decline, the indicator It has decreased to about -10%-5 points less than the registered value at the beginning of 2025, when the region reached less than 15%. As the following chart shows, such a percentage decline was seen at the end of the last bear market, which occurred in 2022 and early 2023.
« trade retail I left the “building”. “It’s completely disconnected, there’s no accumulation, there’s no FOMO (fear of missing out),” commented an analyst known as IT Tech. He added: “Retail capitulation on this scale has historically characterized late-stage corrections.”
In any case, the analyst clarified, “That doesn’t mean there will be an immediate reversal.” “Retail has been closed for longer than you think,” he added. In that sense, think of it this way. We need more time and active catalysts to restore people’s appetite. retail and an upward trend.
In line with this trend, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also gaining ground. Although these instruments Institutional investors usually accessa large amount of capital moves.
Risk aversion is increasing in the market
The reason for low investor demand is Bitcoin price plummets. The decline occurs as digital currencies face a series of downward pressures.
This includes geopolitical tensions caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. The president is trying to get other governments to accept his plan, which includes buying Greenland. The situation is further exacerbated by ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
In addition to the above, the stock market has been recording an upward trend for three years. This worrying phase is nearing its end. Therefore, if a downward trend begins in the stock market or virtual currency market, Risk aversion may increase.
Typically, the coin reaches the end of its bullish cycle the year after each halving, and the crypto winter begins. If this pattern continues, we assume a bearish 2026 after a bullish 2024 and 2025 (after the last halving). That fact May have an impact on market sentiment.
However, this is not a permanent situation as historically Bitcoin has experienced declines of around 80% in previous bear cycles. It promotes ideas such as this bearish cycle it’s not over yet.
A gathering of institutional investors such as Strategy
Surrender of minority investors Contrary to the behavior of some institutional investorscontinues to accumulate even in the face of decline. Among these investors, Strategy stands out. The public company with the most Bitcoin in the Treasury reported purchasing 2,486 BTC on February 17th.
Long-term bullish fundamentals such as scarcity drive these purchases; against widespread sales pressure. The fixed supply of this currency is 21 million units. This allows the currency to appreciate in response to demand, unlike traditional currencies such as the dollar, where supply increases.
Additionally, factors such as the ability to hold and transfer BTC through self-custodial wallets without the need for intermediaries such as banks maintain the interest of enthusiasts such as developer Ben Sigman. However, this topic is also currently facing challenges due to developments in quantum computing.
Beyond Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Bitcoin’s Historical Patterns There are concerns about quantum computing. It is estimated that if it is not resistant, this technology could be able to crack the private keys of Bitcoin wallets in the future. affecting emotions.
This mostly negative scenario increases selling pressure on the market. retail And other investors too.
