Bitcoin prices continue to hold firm within the $95,000 zone following a pullback late last week. This top cryptocurrency has posted a strong January performance featuring a net gain of 11.42% since the new year began. However, the impact of the extension of the price correction from Q4 2025 remains. Market analysts with the username MorenoDV_ used recent on-chain data to identify a specific cohort of holders who are still experiencing extreme psychological stress that could impact future price trajectory.
Bitcoin market risk redistribution is underway – here’s why
MorenoDV_ postulates in a QuickTake post on January 17 that Bitcoin’s bullish cycle continues despite negative events in Q4 2025. Notably, cryptocurrency market leader Bitcoin has experienced a massive 33% price correction after hitting its current all-time high ($126,198) in early October.
Although Bitcoin recorded a gradual price recovery last month, there remains strong expectations for a bear market due to declining market demand and the failure of key technical levels such as the 365-day moving average to recover. Using data on realized prices by UTXO age bands, MorenoDV explains that the Bitcoin market is actively redistributing risk. This positive development counters the bearish narrative that the market cycle is over.
With the current spot price around $95,583, the CryptoQuant indicator shows that psychological stress is unevenly distributed among Bitcoin holders. In particular, the short-term holders, the 1 week to 1 million and 1 million to 3 million cohorts, have realized prices below the spot price of $89,255 and $93,504, respectively. This data suggests that these groups of investors are benefiting and market pressure is low, which is helping to dampen fears.
However, medium-term holders of 3 million to 6 million and long-term holders of 6 million to 12 million have realized prices of $114,808 and $100,748, significantly higher than the current spot price. However, both groups of holders chose to endure the discomfort by absorbing losses rather than initiating active redistribution.
Therefore, as spot prices rise toward realized price levels for these stressed cohorts, we expect losses to decline significantly, ultimately easing pressure on holders of these classes and balancing market risks. This market development will only occur if 3-6 million and 6-12 million people continue to interpret the current market drawdown as simply a cyclical malaise rather than a change in market structure. Therefore, a sustained bullish narrative and constructive price action is needed to prevent these investors from attempting to exit the market.
Bitcoin price overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $95,265, reflecting a modest 5.3% increase over the past week.
Featured images from Pexels, charts from Tradingview
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