Cryptocurrency analyst James Van Stratin shares a prominent analysis of Bitcoin’s recent price movements.
Van Straten argues that the record highs in question ($20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021, $109,000 in 2025) do not accurately reflect the profitability and market sentiment of investors. Instead, he points out that the metric known as “realized prices” is much more meaningful.
According to Van Straten, realised prices represent the average purchase cost of Bitcoin withdrawn from all exchanges and are used to understand the general cost base of the market. The average realised price for 2025 is $93,266. The current price of Bitcoin at around $105,000 indicates that investors are making their average profits at around 12%.
After peaking at $109,000 in late January, Bitcoin fell, cutting the realized price for 2025. This is historically interpreted as a “sackoverbone” signal. Van Stratin pointed out that this period of stress lasted until April 22nd, and Bitcoin has since regained this significant cost floor.
Analysts cite examples from the past few years, explaining how such movements provide important signals for the market cycle.
- 2024: After approval of the ETF, Bitcoin is $49,000 after falling below the average cost floor and Japan’s yen trade declined over the summer.
- 2023: With the exception of a short dip in the March Silicon Valley Bank crisis, prices are generally trading above the cost floor.
Van Stratin said that in the 2017 bull market, the big difference between market prices and realised prices represents excessive speculation, while in the 2018 bare market, prices harmonize with this indicator, suggesting that realised prices act as a kind of “floor support” in the bare market.
Finally, Van Straten states that realised prices continue to rise over time, and by looking at this metric, Bitcoin has not only reached record levels, but has become a mature asset class in the long term. According to analysts, this indicates that capital commitments to the network are increasing, and the market is gaining a deeper structure.
“Instead of focusing on peak prices, it’s far more important to track investors’ profitability across a total cost basis to understand where Bitcoin is headed,” the analyst said.
*This is not investment advice.
