Tariffs appeared to be the consensus culprit last week when the market wobbled. But is tariffs just a simple scapegoat?
How much is the customs duties?
As fairness and the crypto market fell this week, the amount of attention and rage directed at Trump’s tariffs has increased. On the surface, this makes sense. This is because the announcement of various Trump tariffs is roughly in line with the decline. It’s a safe bet that tariffs have had any impact on the market, but I wonder if they’re as prominent as the attention and level of Crypto Twitter’s (CT) rage.
This week, I noticed that I agreed to this week’s guest Travis Kling rating on Always Good Bits + Bips Podcast.
I also agreed with his view that Trump administrators are likely trying to frontload economic austerity or “medicine” to the economy as it is called. The rationale is that while you are currently administering the drug, you can still reasonably blame Biden. The hope is that the economy will improve in the medium term.
Trump drugs have roughly put into price action this week, but there are still positive news stories. Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia after diplomatic efforts in Saudi Arabia, led by the Consumer Price Index (an important measure of inflation), reached 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%.
There was also a particularly positive talk about cryptography. The famous quote, which is an episode of this week’s Token story, stated, “People overestimate development in the short term and underestimate it in the long term.” Developments like the following are long-term bullish:
The US Congress overturned rules for IRS brokers, eased compliance burdens for crypto entities, prevented regulations that critics thwarted innovation and promoted development overseas. The Senate Banking Committee has advanced two bills on Stablecoin regulation and financial equity.
At present, caution and patience are still recommended. Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will be at the bottom at $70K before the next rally. I almost agreed with his paper and he shared it with me in this week’s interview.
