The 90 days at Digital Fort Knox begin with Congress and set deadlines where the Treasury outlines a companion custody plan governing strategic Bitcoin reserves and federal digital asset holdings.
The reported FY2026 Financial Services and General Government Bill HR 5166 directs to provide a practical possibility report on strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US digital asset stockpile within 90 days of enactment, and submits custody and cybersecurity technical plans, including treatment to the federal government’s balance sheet, on the same schedule.
Executive Action in March has already covered the reserve concept and federal stockpile framework, as well as the budget language tier for timelines, reporting requirements, and operational details.
Forward view turns on floats, flows, and new ETF piping
Products traded on Spot Bitcoin Exchange received permission to redeem on July 29th.
This adjustment could reduce friction in the main markets of work and redemption, and could change the way liquidity shocks pass into spot markets, as publishers and market makers can assemble and break baskets with less cash conversion.
As of September 17th, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had approximately 13.18 million btc, with net inflows over the past 30 days being approximately 20,958 btc.
The new supply over the 90-day policy window is about 40,500 BTC for postharving issuances of approximately 3.125 BTC per day.
The issue of strategic Bitcoin reserves is whether the Treasury stance – whether the hold, net purchase, or lending will be added to an existing ETF sink, or offer borrowing to market makers that deepen their orders without adding full sales.
Holdings adjustments form a reserve starting stock.
USMS currently controls approximately 29,000 BTC that moved the forfeiture pipeline, according to a service disclosure obtained through FOIA.
According to Arkham Intelligence, total Bitcoin, which is under US government control across the agency, is close to about 198,000 BTC, including long-term Silk Road seizures, Bitfinex recovery, and other cases where legal processes and victim compensation timelines differ depending on the substance.
The gap between about 29,000 and about 198,000 BTC reflects the scope, legal finality and staging of the agency rather than a single wallet, and HR 5166 explicitly asks the Ministry of Finance to explain the impact of the transfer authorities and the forfeiture fund.
The policy lever is in posture. The pure hold stance ultimately confiscated Bitcoin into a named spare account without new purchases or lending.
If 29,000 BTC is integrated and locked, the tradeable float will quickly shrink by that amount and miners will add around 40,500 BTC in 90 days, so net floats will still grow unless ETFs and other sinks do not outweigh the issuance.
If legitimate finality and transfer dynamics move larger slices, such as 100,000 BTC, a one-off float reduction exceeds the 3-month new issue, changing the depth of the order and the impact of the price of a heavy order during stress.
Academic work on free floats and fluidity shows that low floats can increase the impact of certain order sizes on the market.
Actively swing your ledger depth and slippage swing around stress events. This supports the story of changing floats and changing the volatility achieved by interacting with ETF plumbing.
The net buyer attitude targets predictable accumulations with budget-neutral dynamics that use ultimately confiscated revenue or approved transfers rather than new expenditures.
Schedule for publishing Absord Miner
For example, a simple schedule of around 137 BTC per day and around 12,300 btc over 90 days absorbs almost a third of miners’ issuances over the same period. Combining it with the recent ETF net influx, the combined sink can outperform the issuance without ad hoc demand bursts.
The SEC’s in-kind structure reduces hedging costs for certified participants. This, coupled with a stable preparatory bid, reduces the slippage of creation and redemption, amplified cash conversion into spot prints during a surge in flow.
The structured lending attitude avoids full sale or net purchases and instead extends term-limited secured loans of Bitcoin stock to participants who claimed ETFs with market makers.
That inventory supports borrowing availability of physical baskets, market making inventory, and base trading.
Float doesn’t fall into this setup, but it may improve depth at the top of the book, and volatility may be alleviated during redemption as participants can raise coins through borrowing rather than forced purchases.
The trade-offs are governance and credit policies that include haircuts, eligible collateral, and transparency regarding counterparties that HR 5166 anticipates through its custody and cybersecurity plan requirements.
These pose choices interact with ETF flow and publication, and policy mathematics are simple.
The table below frames a 90-day window using recent ETF data, publication, and example preliminary measures.
* ETF netflow displayed on the horizon for 90 days.
** 3×3 run rate scaling over 30 days suggests ≈ +63k. Use conservative +20k.
The consolidated column treats reserve transfers as a reduction in floats that are not available for trade. This helps in framing market impacts.
The lending line shows a path where floats do not fade, but the resilience of the order book can be improved. ETF columns must be updated at publication using the same wallet pilot tracker, and the publication column will be retained unless the block production rate is shifted.
MacroContexts help to frame US choices
German federal police settled about 50,000 BTC in mid-2024. This was a sales pass that ended prior to subsequent gatherings, and now has stopped public discussions about timing, revenue, and losses and retention strategies.
El Salvador continues to manipulate the national Bitcoin position in parallel with the IMF program. This indicates that reserve policies can coexist with orthodox funding arrangements when disclosure, custody, and operational management are clear.
The Philippines has a bill to build 10,000 BTC reserves over multiple years at Lockup, providing step-by-step templates for storage and governance disclosure.
These cross-market cases are not direct analogies, but are useful comparators of rhythm, transparency and policy goals.
It is unlikely that the storage stack will start from zero. For each public contract record, the former US s-service maintains an institutional custody relationship with Coinbase Prime for seized digital assets. HR 5166 requires the Ministry of Finance to stock third-party management options in its 90-day plan with a 90-day plan, including cyber control and balance sheet presentations.
The real question therefore shifts from whether the federal government can detain Bitcoin, to how rules, accounting, and interagency transfers are structured once Congress completes the vehicle that triggers reporting clocks.
Flow and plumbing sets forward paths for volatility
Digital asset funds had billions of dollars inflows until the end of the summer, leading by the US and active ETF sinks.
Current ETF bases remove over 1 million bitcoins from already tradable cycles and operate low conversion friction in physical form for future creation and redemption.
If the Treasury adopts a pure hold position with considerable integration, we will notice that volatility can increase stress as the free float drops, but lending positions can slow down stress by increasing borrowing without sales.
The net buyer attitude, even on a modest scale, can turn the total ETF and spare bids into a permanent sink that absorbs most weekly issues.
The clock in the headline is authentic, but only starts after it is established.
According to Congress.gov, HR 5166 requires a practical investigation of strategic Bitcoin reserves and custody and cybersecurity architectures within 90 days of the bill’s law, and has been explicitly treated by transfer authorities, forfeiture funds and third party administrators.
