Bitcoin’s quiet price movement may be tied to a historic liquidation event that the market has yet to absorb.
Raul Pal said cryptocurrencies are not weak, but are lagging behind the liquidity cycles that are already pushing other assets higher.
With the price of gold soaring and elections approaching, Pal believes that the time for cryptocurrencies is not yet here.
RealVision founder Raul Pal said the weakness in the crypto market is not a sign that the bull market is over. It just hasn’t started yet. Macro investors have given a concrete timeline, saying crypto prices should start moving by the end of February 2026.
But before that, he explained what’s holding the market back in a recent video for Savvy Finance.
What really happened on October 10th
Pal called the October 10 crash the largest crypto liquidation event in history. It started with Binance and spread across Asian exchanges.
“October 10th was a crypto-specific event where Binance and several other exchanges in Asia basically went bankrupt and everyone was liquidated. It was the largest liquidation event in history and the market has yet to recover from it.” he said.
The Market Maker API malfunctioned during the drop. Automatic liquidations continued without any buyers on the other side. Pal believes the exchange absorbed billions of dollars in positions to prevent a complete collapse. They are currently slowly selling off their inventory, which explains the constant downward pressure.
Also read: Was Binance behind October’s $19 billion crypto crash, or was it its target?
gold speaks
Pal pointed out that gold reacts quickly to financial conditions. It will take about 180 days for cryptocurrencies to catch up.
Gold is currently at an all-time high. Same goes for silver, copper, and the S&P 500. The US dollar has depreciated by about 13% over the past year.
During all of this, cryptocurrencies have been the worst performing of the major asset classes. Pal said this difference is not due to macro weakness, but because the damage from October has not yet healed.
elections force action
Midterm elections will be held in November 2026. The government needs to make sure voters feel the economy is stronger before they head to the polls.
Pal expects positive developments, including tax cuts, fiscal stimulus and new rules that will allow banks to increase leverage. On the regulatory front, the Stabilization Act is progressing rapidly and the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill is moving through the Senate.
what is wrong
Pal promised nothing. A renewed government shutdown or tariff issues could delay things.
“Nothing is certain. Everything is probability.” he said.
