After 40 days of political stalemate, the US federal government appears to be close to reopening, and crypto traders are betting that history will repeat itself.
This US government shutdown is the longest in history, following the previous 35-day shutdown from December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019.
Bitcoin traders bet on history repeating itself as US government shutdown deal approaches
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,501, up almost 3% in the past hour. There was a lull over the weekend, but attention has shifted to X (Twitter) amid hopes for an end to the government shutdown.
Bitcoin (BTC) price performance. Source: BeInCrypto
According to TradFi Media, Senate Democrats have signaled they are willing to advance a bipartisan spending bill to furlough about 750,000 federal workers and end the longest federal government shutdown in history, which disrupted key services from national parks to air travel.
Market watchers such as Bitcoin Archive and Walter Bloomberg reported that at least 10 Democratic senators are expected to support moving forward with the short-term funding proposal. Additionally, the Senate could vote “as early as tonight” to reconsider the continuing resolution passed by the House.
Walter said the new package would provide funding to the government until Jan. 30 and establish procedures for reopening offices within days.
How the government’s reopening process will work:
• The Senate could vote as early as tonight to reconsider the continuing resolution (CR) passed by the House. This is a procedural step that requires 60 votes.
• In the final package, the CR will be replaced by a new one (funded until January 30th) Plus… https://t.co/YgWY1vNlG8
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 9, 2025
Traders note similarities with previous closure resolution
On social media, traders were quick to point out similarities between the previous closure resolution and the unexpected correlation with Bitcoin’s rise. Analyst Ash Crypto reminded his followers that Bitcoin embarked on a five-month rally after the US government reopened in early 2019, rising more than 300%.
“The last time the U.S. government reopened after a shutdown, Bitcoin rose for the first time in five months, surging more than 300%,” wrote analyst Ash Krypto.
Bitcoin (BTC) price performance. Source: TradingView
“So does that mean the pump will come next?” Max Crypto also echoed its memory using data points from previous cycles raised.
Although this pattern fuels optimism, it is worth noting that the relationship between fiscal reopening and Bitcoin performance may be more coincidental than causal.
According to historical data, Bitcoin fell from about $4,014 to less than $3,600 during the 2018-2019 government shutdown, hitting bottom just as the government deal was signed.
In the weeks that followed, the market recorded seven consecutive blue candles. However, broader factors such as the crypto winter recovery, improved liquidity, and shifts in global risk sentiment also caused the rebound.
From February to April 2019, Bitcoin rose above $5,000, marking the beginning of the next big uptrend. However, it cannot be ignored that while reopening was not the root cause of the economic recovery, it acted as a catalyst for sentiment.
Today’s setup may reflect that dynamic. With U.S. liquidity conditions tightening and the Federal Reserve remaining cautious, Bitcoin’s next move is likely to depend more on financial signals than political trading.
Still, many traders see the government shutdown headlines as a high-impact macro trigger that could shift short-term capital flows into cryptocurrencies. This is especially true as traditional markets reel under fiscal uncertainty.
Amid optimism, nearly $700 million in Bitcoin open interest was added. A sharp increase in funding rates means late longs are entering the market.
Analyst Ted warned: “This often doesn’t end well.”
Nevertheless, optimism is slowly returning to markets that were bracing for prolonged paralysis in Washington. If the shutdown ends today, this week will show whether the end of this record-long shutdown triggers further gains in Bitcoin or results in a remedial rebound.
The post “Will history repeat itself?” How Bitcoin traders are paying attention as US government shutdown deal approaches appeared first on BeInCrypto.
