Bitcoin (BTC) price rose to around $98,000 (USD) during today’s trading, continuing its upward trend so far in 2026. Will things continue this way this year, or is this increase just a temporary thing?
Well, there are mixed opinions in the market. Many expect Bitcoin to continue its typical four-year patternwhich means that 2026 will be a bearish period for digital currencies.
Bitcoin typically hits its bullish cycle peak about a year and a half after a halving. This term refers to an event that occurs approximately every four years when the amount of Bitcoin issued is halved.
This means that Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 three months ago in October may have been its highest point of the cycle. In other words, the market Possibility of entering a bear market It dragged on. If history repeats itself, this will continue until a new bull period begins in 2027.
But various experts agree that this pattern may have broken. This is also the case with long-term investment in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and their adoption by institutional investors.
“The classic four-year plan has lost some of its relevance,” said Emmanuel Juarez, a trader and financial analyst.
In a conversation with CriptoNoticias, the Argentine expert noted that while the cryptocurrency market continues to be cyclical, these cycles are no longer as accurate as they were in the past.
For traders, the approval and wider institutional adoption of Bitcoin ETFs two years ago introduced new capital flows and dynamics that tend to smooth out and distort historical patterns. This means 2026 should not be analyzed solely with bear year logic Automatic.
“The outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish.”
From Juarez’s perspective, “the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, although we need to continue to exercise some caution in the short term.” According to his technical analysis, The area between $97,200 and $98,800 acts as resistance Related Psychology.
“If the price manages to stabilize above that block, the next logical target would be to look for liquidity above the all-time high of $107,475, which would allow us to align the daily structure with the short-term bullish trend,” he points out, as shown in the following chart.
For basic planes, see below. This background also entails a constructive scenario for Bitcoin: “Major stock indexes are at historic highs, as are traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, reinforcing a favorable environment for risk assets and inflation hedging.”
Importance of macroeconomic context
In this scenario, “Bitcoin’s rally may continue in the short term, but there is no guarantee that it will remain uncorrected,” Karolina Gama, country manager at crypto exchange Bitget, exclusively tells us.
The directive’s “development will depend primarily on capital flows and macroeconomic conditions, rather than historical patterns.”
He believes that the idea of a fixed four-year cycle has lost its validity. First, past performance does not imply future performance. And secondly, because of the increasing participation of institutional investors through ETFs, traditional managers, and large investors. transformed market dynamics.
“Today, Bitcoin behaves more and more like a global financial asset, influenced by liquidity, interest rates, and risk appetite, making cycles less predictable and potentially less symmetric than in the past,” he argues.
In this sense, he sees the potential for Bitcoin to continue its upward trend if liquidity and macroeconomic conditions are positive for the market. If not, a bear market becomes a reality.
Uncertainty persists due to widespread lack of demand
In this climate of uncertainty, some people prefer to maintain bullish forecasts. wait. This is the case with analytics company Glassnode.
“The market is poised for a possible retest in the $100,000 region, but at the same time has expressed doubts about the acceptability of going above that level in the long term,” the company stressed. In this sense, in his opinion, Upside potential is tactically focused in the short termas a precaution against uncertainty in a wider time frame.
According to their analysis, recent price increases “are due to mechanical positioning dynamics rather than broader organic demand.” He said liquidity in futures remains tight. spothas improved, but has not yet shown the sustained accumulation typically seen during a full trend extension.
Therefore, Glassnode warns that relatively moderate inflows are expected as selling pressure eases. Disproportionate price reactions may occur. However, he does not rule out the possibility that “the current correction phase could form the basis for a new extension of the trend” if ETF-led spot accumulation and institutional demand continue to rebuild.
