On-chain analyst Willy Wu said that Bitcoin ($BTC) could rise towards the mid-$80,000s, but warned that this move would likely prove to be a bullish trap.
The warning came as currency data showed buyer activity was gradually picking up after weeks of intense selling in February.
Willy Wu flags Bitcoin bullish trap as buyers quietly return to exchanges
Wu said stronger short-term fundamentals open the door to a test of the mid-$80,000 level, which is consistent with the cost basis of short-term holders. But he stressed that futures traders, not long-term investors, are driving this movement.
“Be aware that this will be a bullish trap. The bottom structure has not formed yet. If you look at the liquidity situation I see, we are about a third of the way into the bear market,” Willy Wu said.
This type of derivative-driven liquidity tends to generate sharp price movements and liquidation cascades, making rallies structurally fragile.
Wu noted a similar pattern on March 8, noting: $BTC It sold off too quickly, setting up a relief rally towards resistance before the broader downtrend resumed.
Despite local rejection in the mid-70s, investor flows have consistently recovered since mid-February. Meanwhile, the expected volatility (VIX) for equities suggests a switch to ‘risk-on’ in the coming weeks.
$BTC In this early bear market and the current situation, we were sold too quickly…
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) March 8, 2026
Buyer activity changes but remains in the early stages
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that volume deltas on major exchanges are turning positive. As of February 16th, Binance’s 30-day average volume delta was -$145 million, while Coinbase’s was -$88 million. Both have since flipped to approximately +$21 million and +$14 million, respectively.
Bitcoin 30-day volume delta chart from Binance and Coinbase. Source: CryptoQuant
“This marks an encouraging change after a period of prevailing selling pressure. That said, this trend still needs to be confirmed,” said CryptoQuant analyst Dirk Frost.
$BTC It continues to outperform stocks and commodities despite rising geopolitical tensions related to Iran. With it almost certain that there will be no interest rate changes at the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC meeting, risk assets will be focused on forward guidance on possible future rate hikes.
Possibility of interest rate cuts. Source: CME FedWatch Tool
While the return in buyer flow is a positive signal, thin market liquidity and no confirmed bottom structure suggest that traders should approach this rally with caution.
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